Information foraging theory: A framework for intelligence analysis

....... ................................................................................................................................. i Significance to defence and security ................................................................................................ i Résumé ........ ................................................................................................................................. ii Importance pour la défense et la sécurité ........................................................................................ ii Table of contents ............................................................................................................................ iii List of figures ................................................................................................................................. iv Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Background ............................................................................................................................... 1 Issues of intelligence analysis ................................................................................................... 2 Objective ................................................................................................................................... 3 Information foraging theory ............................................................................................................ 4 Optimal foraging ....................................................................................................................... 5 Basic information foraging concepts ........................................................................................ 8 Diet models ............................................................................................................................. 10 Principles of diet selection ............................................................................................. 12 Example of diet optimization ........................................................................................ 13 Patch models ........................................................................................................................... 14 Patchy information environments .................................................................................. 14 Optimizing time spent foraging in a patch .................................................................... 15 Enrichment of information patches ............................................................................... 17 Optimizing patch foraging ............................................................................................. 18 Information foraging on the World Wide Web ....................................................................... 21 The patch structure of the WWW .................................................................................. 21 Typical information search tasks ................................................................................... 22 Information scent .................................................................................................................... 23 Modeling information scent ........................................................................................... 24 The accuracy of information scent ................................................................................ 27 Applying information foraging theory to ntelligence analysis ...................................................... 29 Roadmap for IFT research ...................................................................................................... 29 Describing the intelligence environment ....................................................................... 29 Defining key concepts ................................................................................................... 30 Potential impact of IFT on support to intelligence analysts .................................................... 32 Automated analysis of analyst goals.............................................................................. 33 Automated parameter tracking ...................................................................................... 33 Enhancing scent cues ..................................................................................................... 34 Visualisation techniques. ............................................................................................... 35 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 36 References ..... ............................................................................................................................... 39 List of symbols/abbreviations/acronyms/initialisms ..................................................................... 45